The price of 8 million bitcoins is more than $30,000. Where is the bottom of the market?
Nov 23, 2024
What does it mean that there are 8 million bitcoins above $30,000?
According to the data of the third-party data website glassnode, the number of bitcoins costing more than $30,000 has reached 8 million, an increase of 60% compared with about 5 million when the "5.19" crash last year.
Judging from the market trend over the past six months, the increase in the number of bitcoins above $30,000 means not only the change of hands between high chips, but also the surrender of low-level long-term chips and even ancient coin holders. In other words, many investors who bought bitcoin at a low price sold their own coins during this period, such as investors who bought bitcoin before and after the "5.12" halved.
We know that a certain price may become an important support/pressure level if enough chips are gathered or hands are changed intensively. If Bitcoin will continue to bull market or even rise to a new high in the afternoon, it is necessary to lay a solid foundation now, and the most important way to lay a solid foundation is for institutions and professional investors to promote and take advantage of the market shock, so that a large number of retail investors will leave the market and make chips gather.
According to the data of qkl123, since May last year, the destruction index of Bitcoin currency days has repeatedly reached a high level, and recently it has reached a new high since 2021, indicating that a large number of long-term chips have been sold in the "5.19" plunge and this round of continuous decline.
As can be seen from the figure below, during this period, there were at least 5-6 large-scale long-term currency holders selling tides. In terms of intensity, it is second only to the lowest point of the bear market in December 2018; In terms of density, it is second only to the historical high period when Bitcoin will break through $20,000 by the end of 2020. From the results of these two times: after December 2018, in six months, Bitcoin rose from $3,155 (Ouyi Data, the same below) to $13,971, an increase of 342.8%; After December 2020, Bitcoin was 20,000 dollars higher than before, and then it rose to 64,846 dollars in more than four months, an increase of 224.2%.
Going back to this round of market, with such intensive and intense long-term currency holders selling, we can see how much the two rounds of shock saw-saw since "5.19" have "cleaned" the market chips, and it is self-evident what the main force spent so much effort to "clean" the chips.
Of course, there is still a "hidden danger" in the market, that is, there are still about 10 million bitcoins with a price of less than 10,000 US dollars. If we remove the 2 million and 3 million pieces that are recognized as permanently lost, there are also 7 million pieces, of which about 4 million pieces cost 60-10,000 US dollars. According to the age distribution of Bitcoin UTXO, it can be roughly judged that the buying time of this part of chips is mostly around the halving of "5.12", and $6,000-10,000 is also considered as the main price of this round of halving market. If bitcoin continues to rise, breaking the previous high or even hitting a record high, these 4 million bitcoins are potential sellers, which can be said to be the biggest obstacle to the bull market.
Generally speaking, although the number of bitcoins above $30,000 has reached 8 million, there are still a huge number of low-priced bitcoin chips, which determines that the subsequent rise of bitcoin will definitely not be smooth sailing, and there may be repeated sawing and grinding, which consumes the patience of investors. Until the low-priced bitcoin chips are exhausted, the development of the market will take this as a new foundation and enter a new stage.
Where is the bottom of the market? Is 2022 still worth looking forward to?
As mentioned above, the accumulation of chips of $30,000 and above may make the $30,000 mark an important mark for long and short parties to compete for. So will the bottom of Bitcoin's small bear market fluctuate slightly with $30,000 as the baseline? Judging from the K-line pattern that has been shown, the "5.19" plunged as low as $28,808 (Ouyi data, the same below), and the negative decline after November is currently as low as $32,928, which has indeed formed a bottom pattern of "small fluctuation based on $30,000". Of course, whether this conclusion is valid or not needs more time to verify.
If the above conclusion is established, Bitcoin will have a chance to step out of a new high in 2022 and lead the encryption market further. However, the rise and fall of the investment market is not only the influence of chip distribution, but also the influence of market participation and external environment. The year 2022 is destined to be an extraordinary year, and the influence of the external environment may be more important than before. Among them, there is a well-known fundamental influencing factor, that is, the expectation of the Fed to raise interest rates.
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